Comments on plastic warehouse receipts of the hott

Comments on the plastic warehouse receipt of the treasure island Stock Exchange on December 11

the warehouse receipt of the treasure island stock exchange reported that today, polypropylene varieties rose sharply across the board, and the total cost of the line unit fell to 1936 yuan per ton, while varieties rose slightly. During the normal use of pp09, the settlement prices of 04 and ll0903 were 6325 and 6878 yuan/ton respectively, up 36 and 32 yuan/ton respectively compared with yesterday's settlement. A total of 1930 batches (9650 tons) were traded throughout the day, an increase of 161 batches compared with the previous trading day, and the total order volume reached 2378 batches (11890 tons), an increase of 136 batches compared with the previous trading day

upstream dynamics:

nymex1 monthly crude oil futures closed up $1.45 at $43.52 a barrel overnight. As of 16:00 on December 11, Beijing time, January crude oil futures rose $0.25 to $43.77. Ethylene monomer: FOB South Korea reported $405.0/ton, FOB Japan reported $405.0/ton. Propylene monomer: FOB Korea reported US $501.0/ton, FOB Japan reported US $499.0/ton

polypropylene varieties:

the main pp0904 opened slightly higher in the morning at 6400, fell back after touching the highest 6430 of the day, and gained support and rebound at 6250; The rebound trend continued in the afternoon and finally closed at 6400

news surface:

(1) outer market: CFR Far East homopolymer PP reported flat (US dollar/ton), FOB Middle East homopolymer 1. Plastic shrinkage and its influencing factors PP reported flat (US dollar/ton), FD northwest Europe homopolymer PP reported a drop of 20 euros/ton (euro/ton), and Fas Houston homopolymer PP reported flat (US dollar/ton)

(2) domestic market: the quotation of PP market around Yanshan rose slightly this morning, and the middlemen tentatively reported high, waiting for the downstream counter-offer. Due to the lack of resources, the business mentality is OK, and it is not in a hurry to release materials. At present, the local T30S is reported at about yuan/ton

(3) manufacturer's quotation/device dynamics: TIANLIAN PP is still under maintenance and is ready to start construction in March next year. At present, T30S is linked to 7000 yuan/ton. Panjin Ethylene PP plant was shut down on December 9 due to insufficient raw materials, with a design capacity of 50000 tons. Guangzhou Petrochemical PP plant line 1 is converted to f400h and line 2 is converted to cs820. The listing price of Daqing Petrochemical and Daqing Refining & Chemical T30S was reduced by 180 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton

technical aspects (polypropylene and propylene link 2):

(1) price situation: the medium-term trend of fluctuating decline, which fluctuates at historical lows in the short term; Today's shock rebound

(2) K-line shape and double quantity: take out the male crosshair with long lower shadow line. Both quantities increased significantly

(3) moving average (5,10,20), support pressure: on the daily line, the moving average system is twisted, and the closing is still above the 10 day moving average; On the 60 minute line, the moving average system is arranged in multiple heads. Reference pressure 6530, 6650, 6888, support 6250, 6120, 5702

(4) indicators: MACD (26,12,9) is arranged in multiple heads below the zero axis, and the 60 minute line continues to rise after a golden fork occurs below the zero axis, and the fast line rises slightly above the zero axis; KD (9,3,3) has a golden fork in the middle area, and it slowly rises after a golden fork in the middle area on the 60 minute line

brief analysis and suggestions:

the oil in the period is temporarily stable. The spot price has not changed much, and the situation of rising quotation/tight resources/light transaction remains. In terms of technology, the daily pattern shows that the power of both buyers and sellers is relatively balanced within the day, with strong support below, but there is still a lack of information cooperation on the upside; Recently, the double volume has continued to increase, focusing on the pressure on the upper edge of the triangle finishing form

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