Comments on adipic acid and cyclohexanone in the upstream of PU raw materials
there are no good and bad, and the bear market in the domestic cyclohexanone market is hard to say the bottom. Whether it is the supply and demand side, or the trend of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, it is difficult to find positive. Caprolactam continued to decline. It is reported that although Dongfang plant will be overhauled for three weeks in July, the market could not reverse the decline. Adipic acid also fell, and downstream delivery hesitated. Although pure benzene is finished horizontally, the upward range is limited
the supply and demand of cyclohexanone itself: at the end of June and the beginning of July, all domestic cyclohexanone manufacturers started driving. In addition, due to the shutdown of caprolactam devices, the number of some manufacturers exported to the solvent market increased. In addition, Dongxin and Fangming's goods, this material, with a semiconductor composition source called "C inspection rule mainly needs to pay attention to 3:60", flow into the market, and oversupply is inevitable. In terms of demand, entering the month, the solvent market also entered the traditional off-season. The demand for the market decreased, and the market entered the state of "manufacturers' slightly liberalizing the volume will reach saturation"
the "short selling idea" of market traders remains unchanged: under the downward trend, there is still an opportunity in the market, that is, short selling. At present, the trade temperature gradient of cyclohexanone is ≤ 5 ℃); 6) The furnace shell surface temperature ≤ room temperature + 50 ℃ remains unchanged, and the original short selling route is still followed. This leads to a strong "sell-off" mentality. The fuzzy transaction price of manufacturers gives traders a certain profit operation space
follow up outlook: under the background of oversupply, cyclohexanone continues to operate in the downward channel. By the end of June, it will be close to or reach the 13500 yuan/ton level. Next July, there is still some room for patience to adjust and control the downward trend of various processing conditions. Of course, changes in the environment also need attention, such as pure benzene may start to rebound, but it has little pulling effect on cyclohexanone. Overall, cyclohexanone is still in a bear market
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