Comments on domestic PVC market on September 13

On September 13, comments on the domestic PVC market

upstream dynamics:

crude oil: this year, the team has been struggling, but the team is optimistic about its future, and it has excellent compatibility with other plastic raw materials. With high hopes, there has been a first-line turnaround in the Iranian nuclear issue, which disturbs the market. Lang hinted that it may suspend its nuclear program, and the international oil price fell for the sixth consecutive trading day. OPEC's decision to keep its production quotas unchanged also calmed the market. At the close of Monday, October light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were $65.61 a barrel, down $0.64 from the previous trading day; October Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange were $64.55, down $0.78; October futures of heating oil in New York fell 3.78 cents to 180.54 cents per gallon; Gasoline futures in October closed at 159.46 cents per gallon, down 1.45 cents; Rbob gasoline futures in October closed at 162.15 cents per gallon, down 2.08 cents from the previous trading day; London Intercontinental Exchange September diesel futures closed at $576.75 per ton, down $19.00 from the previous trading day

calcium carbide: the factory price of calcium carbide in Ningxia is yuan/ton (first-class product), the arrival price of lime is yuan/ton, and the arrival price of blue carbon is yuan/ton. Due to the rising PVC market, PVC enterprises' demand for calcium carbide increased, and the early shutdown and conversion of ferrosilicon calcium carbide enterprises in Ningxia began to produce calcium carbide, alleviating the situation that the local calcium carbide output was too small. The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Xinjiang is 2250 yuan/ton. The delivery price of white ash to the factory is yuan/ton, and the delivery price of blue carbon is yuan/ton. Due to the recent decrease in the arrival of calcium carbide in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, the supply of calcium carbide in Xinjiang is slightly tight. The strong demand in the downstream has stimulated the enthusiasm of local calcium carbide production enterprises. Local calcium carbide enterprises have normal production and smooth sales

aftermarket analysis:

at present, the PVC market is basically stable, and the market supply is relatively small. As the weather turns cooler, the operating rate of downstream product enterprises has decreased, and the terminal transaction is limited. The quotation of upstream factories is strong, so most traders take a wait-and-see attitude towards the market and have a stable mentality. Although some products in the downstream terminals have successfully increased their prices, compared with the cost, it is a drop in the bucket, so downstream customers are still resistant to PVC with high consolidation. There is still an early stage in the ethylene material market. At present, fieldbus has become a hot low-cost inventory sales of global automation technology. Due to the widening price difference with calcium carbide method, customers are more interested in using alternative materials. The load of calcium carbide process units is generally increased, and the available supply sources are increased. At the same time, the digestion way with limited export supply sources will be mainly domestic sales. The overall domestic supply is on the rise. The demand for building materials will start in September, which will support the mentality of middlemen. The temperature in the north will drop rapidly, and the demand for membrane materials will also start. However, the autumn harvest has begun, which will affect the construction of downstream factories in agricultural areas, especially in North China. After the demand in the northern region decreases, it will accelerate the supply of goods from the north to the South and intensify the market competition in eastern and southern China. Historical data show that September will be a phased peak season, so middlemen will also take the opportunity to raise prices and stimulate downstream purchases. It is expected that the future market will be a process of consolidation and pull-up in recent years

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