Comments on major issues of the hottest Shenzhou h

2022-10-15
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Comments on major issues of Shenzhou high speed railway (000008): the new mode of operation and maintenance of the whole line is implemented, and the strategic upgrading starts again [Li Jia team of Huachuang machinery]

comments on major issues of Shenzhou high speed railway (000008): the new mode of operation and maintenance of the whole line is implemented, and the strategic upgrading starts again [Li Jia team of Huachuang machinery]

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original title: (000008) comments on major issues: the new mode of operation and maintenance of the whole line has been implemented, and the strategic upgrading has set sail again [Li Jia team of Huachuang machinery] source: Huachuang machinery

great potential · small potential for micro development

Li Jia team of Huachuang machinery thank you for your attention

Li Jia/Lupe/Zhao Zhiming/Bao Yuejiao

key points of investment

matters:

China high speed railway issued an announcement: (1) the company will increase the capital of 1.6 billion yuan to Sanyo Railway project company, Henan Yubo Railway Development Co., Ltd. (invested in three years), obtain 13.25% equity of the project company, and become the largest shareholder of the project company. After the investment is completed, China high speed railway and its subsidiaries will undertake the whole line operation and maintenance of the project Traditional technical equipment and intelligent equipment supply, smart platform, engineering services, consulting services, education and training, leasing and other businesses; (2) Shenzhou high speed railway, China Railway Bridge and electrification of China railway bridge form a consortium to participate in the General Contracting Bidding for the construction of some road and bridge sections of Sanyo railway and the reconstruction of some road sections. Shenzhou high speed railway and its subsidiaries are responsible for the equipment integration in this project and the supply of professional equipment, with a total contract amount of about 1.84 billion yuan, And the company plans to participate in the construction project, which generally only requires the lower yield point, including the smart platform and other businesses of no less than 700million; (3) The company and six subsidiaries will form a consortium with Shenzhen Qianhai Xinhai Jintong investment partnership to bid for the equity transfer project of Tianjin Metro Line 2 and line 3 Rail Transit Operation Co., Ltd. and the stock TOT project of Tianjin Metro Line 2 and line 3. The company and its subsidiaries intend to invest a total of no more than 1.32 billion yuan directly and indirectly through the partnership

comment:

taking a stake in Sanyo railway project, the freight channel has strong profitability, and is expected to provide the company with long-term sufficient order volume and stable cash flow. Sanyo railway, with a total length of 1100 kilometers, is a trunk railway channel that fills the gap of the East-West horizontal freight passage in the Central Plains region in the national railway planning. It is connected with Menghua railway, and the annual transportation demand reaches 160 million tons, which is comparable to the high profit large freight railways such as Shuohuang railway. Railway freight has strong profitability. Compared with international, BNSF is one of the most profitable railway freight companies in the United States, and has been favored by investors for a long time. Shenzhou high speed railway obtained 13.25% of the equity of Sanyo railway project through a capital increase of 1.6 billion, and became the largest shareholder. Calculated according to the three-year construction period and the 30-year operation period, the company is expected to obtain three parts of income after the investment is completed: (1) equipment and service orders during the three-year construction period are 4.2 billion yuan (600million yuan in the first year, 1.65 billion yuan in the second year, 1.85 billion yuan in the third year), including traditional and intelligent equipment sales Intelligent management, maintenance, monitoring and dispatching platform construction, BIM simulation system, consulting services, engineering services and engineering equipment leasing, lesson training, locomotive and vehicle leasing, etc; (2) For operation and maintenance, it is expected to obtain a contract of 1.33 billion yuan within the three-year construction period, and the annual contract amount will not be less than 1.8 billion yuan after operation in 2023; (3) The annual transportation revenue is expected to reach billion yuan, and the annual transportation revenue is expected to be 70million yuan, with an annual average of 175million yuan after 2028

bid for the TOT project of Tianjin metro lines 2 and 3, enter the urban rail stock project, and promote the company to achieve faster performance improvement. The company forms a consortium to bid for the TOT project of Tianjin Metro Line 2 and line 3. If it wins the bid, the company is expected to obtain the equity of Tianjin Metro Line 2 and line 3 Rail Transit Operation Co., Ltd. (including 30-year operation rights) and the long-term operation and maintenance business of two existing mature lines. On the one hand, it can form a strong support for performance growth, on the other hand, it can realize networking operation with the BOT project of Tianjin Metro Line 7, which won the bid in the early stage, Achieve more effective quality and efficiency improvement. Tianjin metro lines 2 and 3 together with line 1 form the main framework of Tianjin Rail Transit. With the construction of Tianjin and the integrated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the passenger flow is expected to continue to increase in the future and realize the increase of passenger revenue

the strategic transformation of China's high-speed railway, the continuous implementation of the whole line operation and maintenance projects, and the high performance assessment of equity incentives show confidence. China high speed railway is a full industry chain system equipment company. The teams in all links of rail transit have rich management experience. The transformation from equipment providers to operation and maintenance services is a natural extension of the business model. In 2018, SDIC hi tech made an offer to acquire Shenzhou high-speed railway at the price of 5.3 yuan/share. At present, the company is a central enterprise holding company. The first largest shareholder is SDIC hi tech, accounting for 20.27%, and the second largest shareholder is Haidian SDIC, accounting for 12.59%. The background of central enterprises helped the company win bot/tot and other projects. The projects that have won the bid in the early stage include Taizhou line S1, Hangzhou Shaoxing Taiwan high-speed railway, freight line, and Tianjin Metro Line 7. Implement equity incentives, and the exercise conditions are high, showing confidence. The exercise conditions are that the annual revenue is not less than 3.59 billion yuan, 4.23 billion yuan and 5.13 billion yuan, the net profit is not less than 590 million yuan, 750 million yuan and 1.01 billion yuan, and the roe is not less than 7%, 7.5% and 8%

profit forecast, valuation and investment rating: Based on the continuous implementation of the company's operation and maintenance projects, we maintain the 2019 EPS forecast value of 0.16 yuan, and raise the company's annual EPS forecast value to 0.22, 0.29 yuan, corresponding to 24, 17, 13 times PE. Considering the continuous implementation of the company's projects, the improvement of performance is expected to continue to be reflected in the future, we give the Shenzhou high-speed railway a valuation of 30 times in 2019, maintain the target price of 4.8 yuan, and maintain the "recommended" rating

risk tip: the investment in railway fixed assets has declined, and the progress of new products and new projects has not reached expectations

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investment rating definition industry investment rating Description: recommendation: it is expected that the industry index will increase by more than 5% over the benchmark index in the next months; Neutral: the expected change range of the industry index in the next months is -5% - 5% relative to the benchmark index; Avoidance: the industry index is expected to decline by more than 5% over the benchmark index in the next months. Description of the company's investment rating: strong promotion: it is expected to exceed the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next six months; Recommendation: it is expected to exceed the benchmark index by 10% - 20% in the next six months; Neutral: it is expected that the relative benchmark index will change by -10% - 10% in the next six months; Avoidance: it is expected that the relative decline of the benchmark index will be between 10% and 20% in the next six months. Disclaimer this report is only for the use of clients of Huachuang Securities Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the company"). The company will not treat the recipient as a customer because of receiving this report. The source of the information contained in this report is considered to be reliable, but the company does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The information, opinions and conjectures contained in this report only reflect the judgment of the company on the date of issuing this report. In different periods, the company may issue reports that are inconsistent with the information, opinions and assumptions contained in this report. The company performs the disclosure obligation within the scope of knowledge. The contents and opinions in the report are for reference only and do not constitute the company's bid or inquiry for specific securities trading. The information contained in this report does not constitute personal investment advice on the securities involved, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial conditions or needs of individual clients. Customers should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this report conform to their specific conditions, make investment decisions independently and bear investment risks by themselves. Any written or oral commitment to share securities investment income or losses in any form is invalid. The price and value of investments mentioned in this report and the expected income from these investments may fluctuate. The copyright of this report is only owned by our company, and we reserve all rights to this report. Without the prior written permission of the company, no organization or individual may reproduce, copy, publish or quote any part of this report in any form. If it is quoted and published with the permission of the company, it shall be used within the permitted scope, and the source shall be indicated as "Huachuang securities research", and this report shall not be used

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